The cyclical bull market remains in force. The sharp, shorter run uptrend from the Nov.
'12 interim low remains in force, too. The momentum measures of overbought have been
cooling with the very recent flattening of the market around record levels. The minor
price breaks that have been seen since the end of 2012 have turned out to be dips which
quickly found bids. The indicators I have been watching have been faltering but have yet
to yield the breaks that would suggest trouble is finally en route. I have been figuring the
market would already be in correction by now, but rather than say "Oh, it's just around the
corner" I am more prone to inquire about the missed call.
My weekly cyclical fundamental indicator has turned more volatile recently, but is only at
a level consistent with readings from late-Jan. / early Feb. Players have been excusing
the slowing of economic progress, perhaps to give the economy the benefit of the doubt in
view of the continuing strength of the Fed's QE program. Tricky business.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!