About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Stock Market -- Head Fake Ignored

The short run downtrend deepened today after traders ignored yesterday's late rally up to
minor support at the 50 day m/a. There is longer term trend line support at SPX 1400. In
my book, no interesting short term oversold comes along until the SPX cracks 1370 on
the chart. SPX

The media claims investors are concerned about disappointing earnings by large multi-
nationals. I am suspicious on this one since earnings potential had weakened obviously
beforehand and analysts had been trimming estimates. More likely I think is that the
more forward looking fundamentals in my weekly fundamental indicator index have lost
positive momentum in recent weeks. As well, I continue to think that investors are growing
more wary of how the politicos may handle the fast coming fiscal cliff, especially now
that the Romney campaign has revived in the polls following his most recent makeover as
a centrist. Reuters also reported today that Fed Chair. Bernanke has been telling buddies
that he is thinking about stepping down when his term expires in 2014. Welcome to the
Romney confusion. Mitt has been claiming he will replace Ben in 2014 if he is elected
president. And if he is elected, who would blame Bernanke for quitting even earlier since
Mitt has filed a no confidence vote on Bernanke already. It is doubtful the market will
be in favor of continuing Mitt vs Ben.

the Fed has finally starting expanding its balance sheet again. This is normally a  market
 positive except that the strong Jun. - Sep. rally already discounted the QE 3 kick off.

The media is going to run with the fiscal cliff and the election aftermath. On an historical
basis, consumer, business and investor confidence all remain subdued and possibly fragile.

I absolutely cannot stand people like Romney. For all I know, he may do some good things
if he wins on Nov.6. But if he does win, he will create unnecessary uncertainty, large dust
clouds for markets players and confusion. A Romney victory will see me take a far
more stripped down, nuts and bolts approach to this blog lest I get caught up in  all the
bullshit that could be headed our way.

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