About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, September 23, 2012

Stock Market -- Weekly

Fundamentals
My weekly cyclical fundamental indicator (WCFI) fell slightly last week, but remains in a mild uptrend. The SPX has outpaced the WCFI by a significant margin since the early Jun. start to
the recent rally. Despite the new QE program, Fed Bank Credit remains in a firm downtrend.
This downtrend is widely expected to reverse shortly with the fresh QE and it is anticipation
of that event which has been the primary support for the rally. With very short term fundamentals
 unimpressive, the rally in the market remains "on the come" fundamentally.

Technical
The weekly SPX shows a well established up move in the market with confirmation from the
indicators. The market is moving into overbought territory, but there is no "bell ringer" signal
as yet that profits need to be booked. SPX Chart

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