Here is a link to the decade long monthly SPX:
A cyclical bull market from Mar. 2009 remains in place. The market is moderately overbought
compared to its 10 mo. m/a. When measured on momentum, the market is also moderately
overbought, and when you check the bottom panel -- stochastic measure -- the market is starting
to approach an overbought level.
Longer run MACD is positive and the thin premium reflects the drag effect of the near bear
market in 2011. Note the slight negative dip to MACD last year.
The SPX has cleared all resistance levels save for the all time peak level recorded in the
latter part of 2007. There is current trend support for the SPX down around the 1400 level.
If the SPX can hold the current trend off the 2009 low, it would take out the all-time high
by Feb. / Mar. 2013. However, The VIX volatility or "fear" index is quite suppressed, and
this indicates a fair degree of complacency in the market. Note that over the past 10 years,
the VIX has not often stayed at the current suppressed level for very long. This suggests that
a price correction may not be that far off and that projected extension of the current uptrend
line may be dubious. VIX
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!