About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, June 25, 2012

Oil Price

I remain interested in a possible long position in oil. This is an oversold market which is still
trending down in price. It is at significant discount to its 200 day m/a, shows as oversold on an
extended 40 day RSI and sports an attractive below 10 + DI on the short term ADX measure.
Oil normally winds up a period of seasonal weakness over the mid-jun. / mid-jul. interval.
But I plan to buy on an upturn in price with some short term support behind it. No clear entry
yet, and I may have to give it a few more weeks especially since Fed QE 3 is presently only a
sideline option. WTIC Chart

The $80 -100 bl. range shown on the chart reflects my expectation of the likely range over the
remainder of 2012.

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