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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Saturday, June 02, 2012

Oil Price Postscript

Tack this one on to the 5/29 post on oil (which links to the weekly WTIC chart).

The WTIC oil price has weakened further, down to $83 and change. A significant oversold is
developing for the oil price. It is headed down to the bottom of a range of $80 - 100 bl. which I
have felt is reasonable out through 2012. On a linear chart, oil, like the SPX, has broken down
from a 3+ year uptrend as worries about the global economic expansion's staying power have
again risen sharply.

I am watching it closely. The downside trading volume for the contract is approaching exhaustion
levels, and RSI and MACD are deeply down on the daily chart. WTIC daily

Since it is rarely smart to try to "catch a falling knife", I am going to watch for a little stability
in the price first. The chart includes  the exchange traded USO (bottom panel).

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