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About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Stock Market

Technical Quickie
The $SPX is rolling up on its Feb. 18 cyclical high, and it is about time to see whether there is a
decent up move at hand or whether the market may be describing an unhappy secondary top to finish
up the run from late Aug. '10. I make it an issue because the market is already more than two months
past that Feb. high. $SPX

The weekly cyclical coincident indicator is flattening out here in the short run and like the $SPX is
running just under what is its cycle peak so far. I am not surprised here. Two important indicators
that form the composite are unemployment insurance claims (UIC) and industrial commodities prices.
From late Aug. last year, claims fell rapidly from the 500K level down below 390K for several
weeks earlier this year. That's a strong 23% decline and it is hardly surprising that UIC has landed
on a little plateau. Industrial commodities surged since mid 2010, and a period of seasonal
sloppiness / weakness should not surprise experienced watchers.

This week we have the novelty of a FOMC policy meeting followed by a press briefing conducted
by BB himself. Since some of the FOMC members do not have that good a grasp of how money
and credit work in the economy, I would not expect a brilliant give and take session. However,
the markets could be on the quiet side until this little circus winds up.

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