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About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, March 06, 2011

Stock Market -- Technical

The daily and weekly market charts show violations of uptrend lines, but no classic breaks of
trend yet. The daily price charts are on shaky ground while the weeklies are still ok. The weekly
NYSE cumulative adv / dec line made a new all time high this week, a positive sign. The uptrend
in my weekly buying pressure index remains solidly intact although the six week flash of +60
indicates the market is moderately overbought on breadth.

Looking at indicators out toward 40 weeks, there has been some deterioration in momentum, but
my important 40 week price oacillator is also still in positive territory. This indicator is overbought,
as it shows momentum against the 40 week m/a at levels seen only about 10% of the time over the
past 22 +years.

I have been looking for a sharp 7% or so market price decline to occur over the mid Feb. / mid Mar. period. So far, we have had only something of a sideways move and there are no bell ringer signs
in my work that suggest a skid is right at hand. Since the window on this expectation closes in
another week and a half, I'll have to re-assess the outlook then if there is no price correction in
the interim. I shall probably have to do that anyway since the daily and weekly charts have violated
their respective trendlines.

In summary, the advance underway since the end of Aug. 2010 is losing momentum and is getting
raggedy. It is mature with significant price risk but the probable expiration date has yet to be spelled


1 comment:

Unknown said...

I could not agree more about a correcting move lower. It has been a frustrating time with the sideways grind. Hopefully the Libyan situation with be able to drag this market down closer to where earnings rations represent some good value.