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About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Thursday, March 10, 2011

Stock Market Notes

Short Term Technical
Today's break downward puts the market in a confirmed short term downtrend. $SPX

The word is out that Street strategists are raising SPX forecast target levels for 2011. This
development reflects rising estimates for SPX earnings and sales for 2011 and is based on a
hefty acceleration of SPX sales per share in Q4 '10 as well as continuing sharp improvement in
the leading economic indicators through early Mar. '11. S&P has index sales rising by an
exceptional 14.2% for the year, with net per share forecast to be even slightly better. The estimate
for 2011 eps is now 96.20. That would put the SP500 Market Tracker up to 1587 for 12/31/11 --
a new all time high. Analysts are looking for dramatic outsized earnings gains from the energy
sector (+27% y/y) and financials (+40% y/y). Hardly anyone would embrace the 1587 projection
for the market this year, because most strategists are shading their p/e ratio estimates.

I have not started to tinker with my earnings expectations for 2011 yet and am holding at $89
per share for now.

Saudi Arabia
Fri. 3/11 is when organizers hope to have large scale protests of Saudi autocracy, even in
sunny downtown Riyadh. Protests from Shia denizens in the Saudi East have started, but the
real test will come if the Sunni majority in the country also takes to the streets. Saudi officials
have made it clear that they plan to confront such demonstrations. Don't miss this show.

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