About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Stock Market -- Attention Please

The SP 500 generated a short term mechanical sell signal on Fri., 10/22, when it failed
to take out the interim high of 1185 made back on Mon., 10/17. Friday's close was 1183.
Sometimes, a failure of this sort simply portends a couple of sloppy days before the
uptrend resumes, and sometimes it signals that a more significant downtrend may be at
hand. Because of the latter factor, short term players should proceed with extra diligence in
the days ahead. Here is the SP 500 chart and notice the 8/2 - 8/9 period before the sell-off
commenced.

Coincidentally, my weekly fundamental business cycle pressure gauge did hit a 22 week
high on 10/22. However, it has lost most of its upward recovery momentum over the course
of Oct. which might not go unnoticed before long despite the excitement about a much
anticipated new round of monetary easing by the Fed. Again, not a warning, but a "heads up".

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