About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, October 15, 2010

Retail Sales

Sales rose 0.6% in Sep., extending the recovery off the 12/08 trough. Retail has been
progressing rather moderately and has not exhibited as strong a bounce as might have
been expected following the steep decline in sales over Half  2 '08. I had an aggressive
8% growth target for 2010, but it now seems unlikely sales will do nearly that well.
Part of the reason for the shortfall reflects the continuing very low inflation rate -- 1.1%
yr / yr -- but it is clear that consumers remain cautious. Retail Sales Chart.

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