About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Stock Market -- Technical Quickie

The market is in a confirmed short term uptrend. Ditto breadth,
which looks even better because of a rotation back into mid and
smaller cap. stocks. Volume continues unimpressive. The bulls
are pushing the envelope in a tentative fashion. The SP 500 has
moved up this week from neutral to modestly overbought and
has yet to evidence the strong push on good volume that would
signify a new upleg as opposed to a bounceback rally from a nicely
tradable oversold.

The market has spent 2010 so far working off a massive longer term
overbought condition and this "work off" has proceeded far enough
where the odds of further consolidation have dropped from 90%
down to 50/50.

The market did correct earlier this year during the 13-15 week
cycle low and we are moving up out of that. The 80+ day daily
cycle I have been tracking is running out of time to see a low.
So, mixed bag here so far.

Chart.

1 comment:

Chris said...

Peter,
As I've mentioned before, I really enjoy keeping up with your post. You were dead on with the cycle low in early February. I also felt we would see this pullback and with my technical analysis thought the S&P500 would hit a low of around 1050. I believe on Feb. 5th it hit a low of 1044.50 and formed a hammer on that day. Now here it is March 3rd and the market is trading above the 3 moving averages I watch closely. 5,29,and 65 day ma's. Problem is now I see the last two days have produce black filled candles with the open and the close near the lows of the day. This looks bearish to my eye. What do you Think?
Thanks,
Chris