This post is an exercise in due diligence. Short term consolidation in
the stock market has taken it off the uptrend line in place since the
2/5/10 interim low and left it just a smidge above the 10 day m/a.
So far, what we are seeing is a work off of a sizable short term
overbought condition which can be rescued easily enough. Even so,
I pay homage to the break of trend and the market's proximity to
the short term m/a's. I also note that the 9 month cycle rolls around
in mid-April and that a shorter cycle also has a low around the same
time. As always, remember that cycles shift and fail, but deserve
There's a three day weekend ahead for the market, and with
employment data due out on this Fri., there may be position
squaring underway currently, as only the SP 500 mini will be open
and that only until 9 am. As well, with tomorrow being April 1,
the quarterly window dressing is done. Thus, I would be looking
toward next week to see if the rally may be rescued or not.
SP 500 CHART.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!