About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, May 19, 2008

US Economy -- Short term lead Indicators

On balance, the two sets of weekly leaders have fallen far enough
to signal a recession environment. As well, those indicators made
bottoms at the end of March and have bounced modestly. I am
also curious that the initial weekly unemployment insurance
claims number has not risen more sharply to date.

The monthly data I use are getting a little stale, but I am struck
by the fact that the new order breadth indices I follow, although
weak, also have not pitched down yet as is consistent with a more
full blooded downturn. As I have noted, inventories have been
well managed at the retail level and wholesale and manufacturer
inventories, while signaling a degree of involuntary build, have
not yet bloated up big time to a level that assures that heavy
additional layoffs are in store.

1 comment:

Rich said...

The inventory build is in houses and bad loans related to same. It isn't in manufacturing,and if it were, it would be overseas where the activity is located. Retail has good JIT inventory practices.