The short term overbought has been erased over the past two
weeks. Now, the short run position of the market is a little shaky,
as the 10 and 25 day M/As will turn south soon without a rally
to reverse the gathering damage.
the rally off the 3/08 lows was quite strong and produced a
sizable intermediate term overbought, which is still being worked
off. The recent sell down has not been deep enough to jeopardize
my key intermediate term trend indicator.
This leaves me thinking the market could correct mildly further
before I would be inclined to say equities have experienced
a bear market rally that has simply failed. I have to admit that
it is worrisome that the SP 500 quit right at the 40 wk M/A
instead of crossing it. The old SP 400 Industrial Composite, which
excludes financials and utilities, did break through its 40 wk M/A
and its "40" is stabilizing.
Long years of experience have taught me that overtrading is an
easy way to lose money. Although I am eager to figure out the
direction of the market, I plan to wait for a better technical
"read" than what I see now.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!