The urgent oversold discussed in the mid-March posts on the market
did yield a strong and tradable rally. My six week selling pressure
gauge, which hit deep oversold levels during the middle of last month,
has since moved into neutral territory. The market is also moderately
overbought against its 25 day m/a at +3.3%. The 25 m/a has also
upticked, a positive indication.
Early in the day, the SP 500, which closed around 1373, did move up to
test resistance above 1380. The test failed. This triggered a mechanical
short term sell signal for some short term traders. As well, the market
has been unable to close decisively above a closing price only downtrend
line (1368 today). All perhaps minutiae in the long run, but not to short
Now the market is close to an intermediate term positive turn in my book,
so I think the action this week may be important.
From an inter-market perspective, the rapid recovery of the oil price
from its recent $100 bl. low back above $109 is something to keep in
sharp focus. Oil and gasoline prices remain in firm longer term uptrends
and that price action is inflationary, which is, in turn, a threat to the
stock market p/e ratio.
I link to an SP500 chart below and plan to comment on the technical
tea leaves later in the week. Click.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!