Well, the shorter term trend is up, and the intermediate term
trend has turned up as well. The market has broke above the
downtrend line running back to 12/07 and is very close to
challenging the down line running from the 10/07 high.
The market is now moderately overbought short term. The
current advance has taken out all shorter run resistance save
for a close just under 1400 on the SP 500. That failure to wipe
out the 1395-1400 level set off selling today, and we could see
some more on Monday as some of the ruthless players take profits.
It is a tricky time now, as there is enough of an up-channel off
the 3/08 lows to withstand a sharp 30 - 40 point downdraft in
the SP 500 before you could claim with assurance that the
bears were back.
Chasing on the long side could be risky next week until we see
what the bears have in store.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!