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About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

Stock Market -- Cliffhanger

Well, today it was American Home Mortgage (AHM), writer of
Alt - A loans (scant credit underwriting required). Going,
going, gone. Now I guess the market could really have blown
out on this, but instead it fell to a rough short term
support area (low test zone), with key composites just near
the Friday, 7/27 close.

So, the boyz left it until tomorrow to decide whether we go
lower or whether enough is enough. More bad news of the sort
we had today should have led to a clean break to a lower level.
I call it a cliffhanger because the market held so near the
7/27 low, and like an adventure serial, we have to tune in
tomorrow to see whether the market holds.

1450 - 1460 for the SP500 is an interesting support area for
several chart reading reasons. My preference would be for a
healthy 10% shakeout from the highs seen earlier in the
month. But, I have seen enough technical surprises over the
past four months not to bank on anything.

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