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About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Stock Market -- Short Term Technical

SP 500: 1273

As discussed in a brief technical note on 12/12/05, I have been looking
for this market to pop further to the upside, with the SP 500 projected
to move up to 1310 by mid to latter January.

My view has been that the price momentum and breadth compression witnessed
from 6/05 through early October was rather unusual and that a breakout - be
it up or down - should be powerful and time compressed into a three month
frame. The market did break out of the tight period to the upside, with the
SP 500 moving quickly from 1178 0n 10/20 up to 1265 on 12/2. It then meandered
up to 1273 on 12/14, and then entered a well deserved back and fill period
until yesterday. In the two trading days of '06, we have seen a move from 1248
up to 1273.

For the coiled spring to pop fully, the SP 500, which has been bumping up
against well observed trend resistance in place since 3/04 on every technician's
chart, really needs to get a move on. Players seem to be involved in a game of
"Alphonse and Gaston" -- You go first; No, you go first, with many waiting
patiently for the other guys to run the market up decisively through resistance.

The clock is running on my gambit and if the market does not pop up strongly
over the next week or two, I will have to head back to the drawing board.

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