About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, March 22, 2020

SPX -- Technical Update

The market remained in crash mode through 3/20. It has now moved deeply into oversold territory.
Although this is a bear market, The SPX is approaching a trade worthy point based on the impor-
tant intermediate term stochastic momentum measure (second panel on chart link below). When
both measures on this indicator decline below the 20 level, rallies normally ensue, even in a bear
market. This type of situation is fast approaching. And, as you might guess it is not for the faint of
heart.   WeeklySPX

Seen against the 40 wk m/a, the SPX is as oversold as it has been in years. Note also that the
3/20 SPX closing took out the late 2018 low, thus re-inforcing the concept of an in-force bear.
The bottom panel on the chart is a longer term MACD measure and it also is starting to turn
negative, which is not a good sign.

I plan to catch up on the fundamentals later in the week. Having hit the 80 mark, I have seen
and have been through  nasty periods when illness strikes in epidemic fashion. The current
CO-VID 19 pandemic is personally one of the scarier ones and ranks right up there with the
polio epidemics of the early 1950s.

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