About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Tuesday, July 02, 2019

SPX -- Mid - Year, 2019

The SPX has reached an interesting point at present and from several perspectives. My forward
looking economic indicators have been signaling a slowdown in real growth was in prospect for
well over a year (confirmed). The business profits indicators have been warning of a flattening
of profits over much of the same period, and with a trend of weakening pricing power, profits for
the second half of the year could dip lower. On the flip side, the Fed has backed off further from
major quantitative tightening of excess system reserves and this has led to an improvement in the
growth of monetary liquidity. Moreover, the Fed and other major central banks have indicated
they may be prepared to cut short term interest rates, especially if trade disputes continue to
suppress economic growth. The improvement in the trend of monetary liquidity is a market
positive for sure, but the timing of such a turn as a a market support and booster is hard to gauge.

From my perspective, as the SPX approaches the 3000 level, it is becoming increasingly over-
valued and is overbought against its 40 wk m/a, which by the way, has yet to turn up in a
meaningful way. To top it off, the SPX is threatening to reverse positively on its very important
longer term MACD measure (bottom panel of the chart).  SPX Weekly

Market players are arguing briskly about prospects for the remainder of 2019 and for good
reason.








1 comment:

SimonW said...

Should be 2019 not 2016, presumably. Would appreciate an update on Treasuries. Thank you.