About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, April 14, 2017

SPX Daily -- Crossroads Ahead

The SPX has been working off an intermediate term overbought. In the meantime, the daily chart
shows that corrective action is tilting toward a flashpoint.  SPX Daily

Based on closing prices, the SPX has been in a downtrend since the end of Feb. Notably, the 25
day m/a has rolled over and the SPX has failed to rally above it. The market is in a mild
oversold condition, and both RSI and MACD have declined near important testing points with the
30 day ROC now in mildly negative territory. Corrective action has been moderate so far,
but the shorter term indicators show the worst readings since the recent market upturn began in
Nov.

I have been wondering for weeks whether the Nov. rally would follow the other two which took
place since the market turned up back in 2/16, and ultimately finish up with a test of the 200 day
m/a. That would be compelling symmetry, but there is hardly enough logic in the market to make
it happen. Even so, it's heads up time from a technical point of view.

We roll into Easter weekend with tensions again running high on and around the Korean peninsula.
There is The Donald to contend with and new leadership in Seoul. The odds are that the US
command is telling the President to cool his jets and wait to see if his new best friend, President Xi
of China, has any magic to work that gets us all off the hook. Market players do not seem very
concerned, but always keep in mind that this particular area of the world is strewn with mis-
calculation through history.

I plan to post again on the weekly SPX chart by Sunday evening.

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