About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, March 26, 2017

SPX -- Weekly

Fundamentals
My weekly cyclical fundamental indicators have been on the flat side since the end of Jan. Since
they are forward looking, there is a suggestion that the Apr. - Aug. period of this year could see a
slowdown in the progress of business sales and profits momentum. The SPX has tracked the
indicator well since Jan. 2016, so a flat market could continue for a while. On the plus side, there
are some preliminary indications the recent thrust upward of  the y/y CPI may dampen before
long and perhaps take some of the pressure off the Fed to hike rates quickly.

Trump / GOP Opera Buffa
The American Health Care Plan blunder revealed advanced buffoonery in both the White House
and in the Congress. This first disastrous try at serious policy making should, in my view, knock
200 points off the SPX forthwith. But, for all I know, The Street may well try to put a more
positive spin on this serio - comedy to keep up interest in the pro - business tax and infrastructure
programs still on the docket. The alleged dalliance of Team Trump with Russians to undermine
the recent election and, perhaps, to reset  US foreign policy to a more kindly stance toward
Mother Russia is now a brisk double dumpster fire that still requires attention.

Technicals
The SPX is in the midst of working off an intermediate term overbought condition. The post -
election rally has been very resilient, but with some slowing of profits growth out ahead and
the recent AHCA fiasco set to prompt at least a little shiver, you might keep in mind that
longer view trend support is at SPX 2200 - 2250.  SPX Weekly

No comments: