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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, February 05, 2017

Oil Price

Well, I have been wondering whether this would happen. The oil price has been trending up for nearly
a year. The current price is just below the post - crash high and the market is not overbought against  its 40 wk. m/a. The strongest seasonal period is just ahead and is set to run through Apr. on demand for the gasoline build for the northern hemisphere peak driving interval. The OPEC / Russia
 production cuts have apparently held and the price did not tank over the seasonally weak
Oct. - Jan. period.  On the flip side, the 52 wk. ROC% is going parabolic. That is suspicious, but is
not necessarily fatal. What is worrisome, however, is that long side speculative interest in the oil
futures market is at a record high, and currently tops levels seen at major oil price highs. All the
money that is programmed to go into the long side of the market may not all be in, but maybe we
are not far off from that level. Oil Price

The oil market's supply / demand picture should gradually improve as 2017 wears on, but with
bullish sentiment so strong at the moment, perhaps their is room for a painful hiccup in the
market before it strengthens further.

1 comment:

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