The SPX has been essentially flat since mid - Dec. when the strong post - election rally hit a heavy
duty short term overbought. Since then, the key indicators shown on the chart have been fading
just as they did after momentum peaked in the first two up legs of the recovery that began early
in 2016. SPX Daily
Interestingly, the action over the past year shows that decay in the momentum of the SPX does
not signal trouble ahead until the market breaks its 25 day m/a. Then the market has grown less
stable and eventually results in a sharper dip that tests the 200 day m/a. No one can be sure that
this pattern will be repeated in the weeks ahead, but I have found it interesting because at some
point it would be logical for traders to hesitate and seek confirmation that the economy remains
on a positive track and that the new administration is going to pursue sensible policies. The Trump
guys also have the option of moving fast to secure the stimulative and foreign earnings repatriation
programs they seek or waiting for a time to secure a better economic environment both for the
2018 and 2020 elections.
New Yorkers know that the Donald is an egomaniac who does some positive things and some
very destructive things. Since he has apparently decided to be himself as president, folks who
are learning about him as they go along will need to adjust to all the dumpster fires he creates.
For all I know, there may be a little witness distress building now, although the market action
is not yet evidencing it since the market's progress mirrors that of the pattern of the past year.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!