the consensus continues to build that the Fed will defer raising short rates for a while longer as
the US economy remains sluggish. Thus, the US dollar has been weak in Jun. so far and this has
worked to push the oil price and the commodities market higher. The continued strength in the
oil price leaves the market in a clear counter - seasonal advance. Presumption of a less restrictive
monetary policy by traders coupled with the still ongoing rally in oil are working to push the
SPX higher and leaves it above the prior strong resistance line at 2100 and closing in on the
previous record high set last year in May. SPX Daily
The SPX is expensive, is extended on a long term basis, and is backed by shorter run speculation
about monetary policy for the months just ahead. The rally off the Feb. 16 low is being extended
and the market is not yet flashing material overbought. Since sentiment has tended toward
bearish all year, players are hardly ecstatic. Still, you are on your own here, and if you're long,
review your risk tolerance.
One sneaky political point needs to be made as well. With the Obama administration in control
of much of the economic data flow here in this election year, the 'natural' tendency will be to
save the stronger readings until later in 2016 wherever there is discretionary leeway. Thus, if you
like the lower US dollar, it may have your back for a while longer.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!