About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, March 06, 2016

Gold -- Weekly

I chided the gold bulls just a short while back for undisciplined pursuit of the metal in the market,
but traders are jumping into very distressed resource futures and securities as well as selected
markets all around. So, gold has been no exception. There was a nice trade in gold late last
autumn when it was among the unwanted, and in correct anticipation of the seasonal rise in the
oil price, traders are extending the rally. The towering steeple structure of the gold bugs cathedral
collapsed a few years ago, and most of the stained glass windows have been shattered, but the
bugs are leading the charge inside anyway. Gold fundamentals are edging positive in the short run,
so gold's advance is not an apparent travesty.

Here is the weekly chart. Gold  The 13 wk. m/a has moved above the 40 wk. m/a with both in
up trends. The market is on its way to an overbought for the  intermediate term RSI (bottom panel)
so traders are going to be monitoring the RSI trend as well as the now rising oil price, which has
really caught their fancy. As a trader, I would prefer to re-enter a position in gold when the RSI
is back down around 30. Note as well that there is congestion in the 1300 - 1400 area.

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