About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Oil Price Quickie

Historically, the oil price tends to  experience seasonal weakness from early October through late
February of the following year. Interestingly, during this interval, there is a brief period when oil
tends to rally, and this occurs over the second half of December into very early January. I bring
this issue up to caution longer term players who have an interest in getting long oil and related
stocks that price weakness often re-asserts itself after the new year begins. In an ideal seasonal
pattern, the oil price tends to make its low in late February when it is time to build the gasoline
stocks up for the driving season ahead in the northern hemisphere. Seasonal patterns suggest
seeing what January holds in store for the oil price except for shorter term traders. WTIC Weekly

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