About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, May 01, 2015

Stock Market -- Traders Lean Bearish

Despite media chatter about traders being too bullish on stocks, evidence from players who
back their judgment concerning the shorter term outlook for the market with real money down
have gradually turned less bullish since the end of 2013 and as a group are currently turning
mildly bearish. Consider the equities only put / call ratio. $CPCE

The chart's focus is the CPCE 13 wk. m/a. Low put / call readings down around .55 signal strong
optimism. The last time we saw this was back at the end of 2013 when The SPX was hitting very
strong y/y price momentum. Since then, the 13 wk. the p / c ratio has trended higher and has
recently crossed over into mildly bearish territory. More extreme trader bearishness is signaled
up around a .75 p /c reading as last seen during the latter part of 2011.

The gradual rise in the intermediate term put / call ratio reflects the progressive decline of price
momentum for the SPX since the end of 2013 and signals increasing caution in shorter term
market sentiment despite recent highs for the SPX.

1 comment:

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