Seen weekly, the SPX continues in the sharp upward price channel it has maintained since the
autumn of 2011. The market has become much more shaky in terms of holding trend, but if
the SPX can close out Q1 '15 above 2100, it will remain on a strong positive track for 2015.
Note the deteriorating trend in MACD, RSI and yr/yr weekly rate of change. Note as well that
the SPX premium over its 40wk m/a has decelerated visibly on the chart. From a historical
perspective, the lengthy unwinding of these measures without a serious and sharp break for a
price correction is seldom seen. The market has continued to bend without breaking down.
Cumulative advance / decline is losing positive momentum, but did hit a new high this week.
This NYSE indicator compares very favorably with even broader measures of the stock market
which reveal that only roughly 50% of all issues are in discernible positive price patterns.
Among major stock markets, the SPX has been the big game in town over the past couple of
years, but since the start of 2015, the global equities market sans the SPX has improved sharply
in relative performance despite relatively favorable US fundamentals. It is worth noting that the
world market excluding the US is displaying an RS line vs. the US that is rising sharply
from deeply oversold levels. Moreover, even if this represents only a counter trend rally
for global equities, it could easily last 3 - 6 months, thus offering stronger potential abroad
both for stock pickers and market macro players. MSCI World Ex. US vs. SPX
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!