About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Thursday, December 18, 2014

SPX Daily -- The Thundering Herd

On Tues. 12/15 (scroll down), I mentioned the SPX had become oversold enough to attract
long side interest, and we sure got it. SPX Daily

The action since mid - Sep. largely features HERD behavior with rapid downs and ups. Nearly
mindless players appear to be driving the market in the short run. I can understand the increased
volatility up to a point. Folks know it is an expensive market with large downside if the
fundamentals go wrong. And, they know that moving heavily into cash which offers negative
real returns is not a place they want to be for long if the market starts up again. For many years
I would tell people that the stock market was a serious business but one not to be taken too
seriously. And now, as I glide toward life's Hawaii room, I am starting to look at the stock market
as not being a serious business but one that should be taken very seriously if you have money
invested. Let us hope this is the storm before the calm.

1 comment:

Siksha Chouhan said...

There is a speculation that US oil producers will fight OPEC for grabbing a larger market share and this could initiate a new price war between the two and Crude go further down. Deregulation of diesel price announced by the Indian government in October 2014 and a sharp decline in global crude oil prices over the past few months will help reduce the government's fuel subsidy burden and help contain its fiscal deficit. The steep slide (fail) in global crude oil prices will also help India in containing its current account deficit and fuel price inflation. India imports 80% of its crude oil requirement.
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