The weekly momentum and oscillator measures I use most did tip negative around the
outset of this year. But the argument in recent weeks concerned whether the SPX would
weaken enough to signal that the leg up from late 2012 was finito. The market did bend
down but it did not break and now we are witness to a fast 'buy the dip' program that has
SPX closing in on the 1848 end of the day highs seen on either side of the new year.
Moreover, the market is right back in the strong but widened price channel it entered in
the latter part of June. What's left to be seen before the bulls again declare victory is
whether the SPX can sashay right on up and through the 1850 level over the next week or
so or if it runs into strong headwinds of resistance near that level. There has been
technical damage here, but it has been mild, and the tenacity of the advance since late 2012
continues to command respect based on the strong bounce back over the past two weeks.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!