About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, November 25, 2013

Oil Price

I closed out a handsomely profitable oil market short position today. The traditionally weak
late autumn seasonal period may well give way to a bounce over the next month and the
market itself has been stabilizing at a technically oversold position. The internal structure
of the futures market indicates to me that there are still way too many financial players who
are long this market, but from a contrarian viewpoint, that does not preclude a rally. I have
not factored the Iran deal on Their nuclear enrichment programs into the decision as more
detail is needed. There still could be another nice shorting opportunity on the oil price come
mid - Jan. 2014 that could see WTI crude drop down to about $85, but that is still a way's off.
WTI Crude Chart

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