About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, October 07, 2013

Gov. Shut Down / Debt Ceiling Issues Seen Differently

I have no trades on the books now and am 100% in cash. Partly it is just laziness. Partly
it is that there are no trades that suit my interests. Shorting oil and going long the T-bond
are prospects but have yet to show the volatility I would like to see.

I am in the black for the year but it has been a quiet one, especially since late spring when
the SPX became strongly overbought.

So, it would be nice to see some good opportunities open up between now and the holidays.

My view on politics is that the GOP right wing continues at war with Obama personally and
is using the shutdown and debt ceiling issues to scorch the earth for as long as it can. For now,
I am assuming  that speaker Boehner will simply not vote out a clean bill on the debt ceiling
regardless of whether the votes are there or not. Since Obama can hardly compromise on a
fully extra - legal move by Boehner without damaging the spirit if not the rules of the US
Constitution and further, since giving into clearly extortionate demands would destroy the
credibility of his presidency, he has little choice but to stand back from the Boehner group.
Obama can explore raising the debt ceiling by executive fiat, but any method he might choose
could be challenged in court and would for sure get the House Of Reps. to commence
impeachment proceedings.

I suppose Boehner could have an epiphany, whip his charges into submission, and vote out
clean bills. Devoutly to be wished for...

I must add that the GOP righties do not hold Mrs. Clinton in warm regard either and see a
knock down drag fight ahead for years if necessary. It is the worst hostility coming from the
right that I have seen since the last couple of years of the Truman administration (1950 - 52),
and the Democrats very much need to start breathing fire and really go after these dangerous
people.

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