About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, July 07, 2013

Stock Market -- Daily Chart

The SPX has rallied above its 10 and 25 day moving averages. The short term indicators
are also turning up. Curious then that the SPX did not breach a modest downtrend line
on Fri. 7/5 when it rallied up nicely. For some trend traders, that failure is an automatic
sell signal. SPX Daily Chart

That failure does leave the market in an interesting technical position, for it is exquisitely
poised to move in either direction in the week ahead. Bernanke will speak on 7/10 and
may have a comment about current monetary policy, but the pause in the rally may also
have much to do with the opening of the earnings reporting season for Q2 '13 and especially
the forward guidance that various companies may provide. My forward indicators suggest
that such guidance may be both reserved and muted as rather slow growth in sales, both
in terms of volume and pricing, seems on the menu. No shocker there, but we still have to
see how investors may tilt their collective interpretation (Do not forget the QE program in
this regard).

However, the technicals suggest not to be prejudicial but to be open minded in the short
run.


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