About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Stock Market -- Weekly

My weekly cyclical fundamental indicator (WCFI) has been sneaking down since May
10, and is about to reverse a mild uptrend underway since the onset of 2013. The
indicator has been more volatile than usual week-to-week reflecting the ups and downs
of weekly unemployment insurance claims. The weekly economic coincident indicator I
include has also let down a bit. The SPX has been drifting lower since 5/17 as well,
but it is possible that the weaker market may be more of a reflection of trader angst over
whether the Fed plans to curb the growth of the current large QE program (We'll hear later
this week from Bernanke about this issue). The market has been running well ahead of the
WCFI this year even though the WCFI is dominated by forward looking elements.

Coincidentally, Fed Bank Credit has also leveled off over the past month following a
vigorous rise. Hard to say how closely guys are watching this as well, given that the Fed
would very likely announce a program change ahead of time. But, nerves are nerves.

The trend up from Nov. '12 is still intact, but the weekly SPX chart will need to stay
comfortably above 1600 in the weeks ahead to keep the trend intact. Recent market
weakness is bringing the SPX down from a major intermediate term overbought, and the
key indicators are starting to roll over on the negative momentum. SPX Weekly Chart
My 40 week price oscillator with moving average is also showing toppiness much like
the MACD in the chart.

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