About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Thursday, May 02, 2013

Global Economic Supply & Demand

The very sharp decline in the growth of global industrial output over the past two
years appears to have also triggered a slow down of investment spending on new
capacity which has led to a degree of stabilization in industrial materials pricing.
Measured yr/yr, global output growth has been running around 2 - 2.5%, compared
to the strong 5 % growth seen over the 2004 - 2008 period and a long term growth
rate of about 4%. Very few countries are going anywhere in a hurry relative to the
past.

Slow global production and trade growth over the past two years has taken the steam
out of the commodities market and this has removed a major originating stimulus for
inflation.

Here is Dr. Copper's take on the situation: Copper Price The metal has shadowed the
loss of growth momentum in global industrial output nicely and also catches the ramp
and subsequent fizzle in China's output as its export orders have been decelerating.
Note that copper is now sitting down at critical support. Small wonder then that even
the ECB got off its ass today to add some liquidity to the pool the other major central
banks have been enlarging.

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