About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Monday, March 25, 2013

Stock Market Breadth

The chart link ahead shows the cumulative a/d line for the NYSE. It makes for some
interesting reading. NYSE Breadth

Note the nice uptrend for the past three years, but note as well that the A/D line is getting
extended once again prior to recent tops. You'll also observe the large premium of the line
over its 200 day m/a -- a warning.

The A/D line and the market tend to falter when cumulative breadth starts to get tangled up
with its 30 day m/a, an obervation that goes well back in time. For now, the A/D line is
still freely rising above the 30 day m/a, which keeps it positive.

I have also included extended time readings for MACD and RSI. Derterioration in these indicators
tend to foreshadow interim tops in breadth and share prices although the lead times can vary.
MACD has just started to roll over, and RSI has lost its its uptrend, but although toppy, has not
broken down yet.

Short term, the envelope has been well pushed.

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