Stock Market -- Weekly

Fundamentals
The weekly cyclical fundamental indicator has turned up sharply reflecting rising sensitive
materials prices, reduced unemployment insurance claims and a stronger coincident indicator,
which measured weekly, has increased to 2.5% yr/yr. The coincident measure is not seasonally
adjusted, but it does suggest a good start for business in the new year.

The Fed continues to add more generously to its balance sheet -- a continuing positive.

Technical
The SPX remains in a confirmed uptrend. SPX Chart. Note that 12 week price momentum has
finally started to blossom after a lengthy muted period. The 40 wk or 200 day price oscillator is
positive and on a buy signal. The 6% premium of the SPX to the moving average signifies a
mild overbought condition for the intermediate term. SPX vs. 200 Day M/A

Cycle And Seasonal
The venerable 9 month cycle low is due to arrive near mid - Feb. The seasonal pattern,
distilled from long term studies, also suggests price weakness or profit taking going into and
during Feb. (Respect, but never bet the farm on theses measures.)

Sentiment
One hot topic currently is that "everybody is bullish" which is taken to imply that a downsweep
could be at hand. I use a compilation method to measure bullish sentiment from several opinion
and advisory services. An index reading of 65.0 suggests opinion is too bullish and does
carry a warning of a probable price correction not far ahead. The current reading is 55.3 and is trending higher (For comparison, the index at the market low in 3/09 was 21.7).