About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Thursday, April 05, 2012

Stock Market -- Weekly Chart

The weekly chart for the SPX continues positive both trend and indicator - wise, although there is
some wear from the recent loss of price momentum. The market remains moderately overbought for
the intermediate term (out to 3 - 6 months), but the indicators continue to show some leeway for
more positive price action through month's end, although the thrust of this move is rather well along.

I have also linked to the SPX against its 200 day price oscillator. The oscillator measure also
remains positive, but is close to one standard deviation above the mean. There is room for the
market and the oscillator to carry higher, but I should caution that oscillator movements above
one SD happen rather infrequently (the last one being in 2009, when there was tremendous thrust).
SPX & 200 day osc.

I plan to look at the economic fundamentals for stocks in the days ahead. There are elements
of transition to a more normal environment, but the bigger picture still shows the US is far
from fully normal on a cyclical basis.

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