About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 40 years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, December 07, 2011

Russia Stock Market

The ride has grown bumpy with gaps on the charts in recent days as allegations fly that the recent
election was rigged and as surveys show a sharp decline in PM Putin's popularity as he maneuvers
to run for the Presidency for the third time next year after securing the United Russia party
nomination recently (The UR party is also down in the polls). Following the global trend, Russia's
economy has also slowed to 4-5% annual real growth, and is running below Putin's forecasts.
Voters are also unhappy that a sharp economic recovery until recently has not led to much stronger
value to benefit ratios in pension funds (persistent underfunding). Citizen protests are the strongest
they have been for years and although there is little talk of political destabilization, stock players
need to be more careful than usual in the short run with this high beta market. At $29, the RSX is
priced for only $80 bl. oil, so the market is at a large discount to recent price positioning given that
oil is up around $100. RSX is a high risk  / high reward play on a favorable resolution of the
EU crisis. RSX

I like to follow the Russian market in connection with the SPX, the oil price and industrial metals
prices.

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