Powered By Blogger

About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Sunday, October 02, 2011

Stock Market -- Weekly

The weekly chart shows a shorter term basing period for the SPX. However, the intermediate term trend factors still point down, so there is no sign here yet that the market is headed into positive reversal.
The OEX 100 put / call ratio is a "real money down" sentiment indicator. This indicator has been
showing consistent net put buying on a weekly basis since last XMAS, and during this cyclical bull
market has tended to drop into a net call buying postion several weeks before a sustainable market
bottom. We have yet to see this reversal. So, the weekly chart, which can turn reasonably rapidly,
remains negative for now. My experience here is not to go long with anything but very small $ until
there is some positive stirring. $SPXhttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p52454672129

In early Aug., my weekly fundamental cyclical indicator resumed a downtrend started around the market high in  late Apr. This indicator does contain forward looking measures such  as industrial commodities prices and unemployment insurance claims, so it is forshadowing a weaker economy.     The heavily coincident part of this weekly indicator does not yet show any signs of a downturn in the economy, although positive momentum has leveled off since the spring of this year. It is interesting
to note that the coincident factors like retail sales and production components have not tipped over
yet despite weakness in the more forward looking factors. In fact the coincident factors are overdue
to correct.

For more on the fundamentals, have another look at the Sep. 14 post.

No comments: