The correlation of the weekly cyclical coincident indicator with the weekly action of the stock market has dropped from the .65 area down to .50 over the last several months. Week to week then, it has
been a little tougher to glean the fundamentals attracting the most attention from investors. However,
it is interesting that both the indicator and the SP 500 are flat with their respective readings at the
end of Jan. So, both the market and the indicator have round-tripped over the Feb. - early Jun.
period. The weekly cyclical indicator has been stabilizing over the past month or so, and seems
likely to continue doing so for a few more weeks. The suggestion here from the fundamental side
is that perhaps the stock market will also regain more stability in the short run. However, it is
important to remember that there has been recent moderate erosion in correlative behavoir of the
market and the indicator.
I have ended full text posting. Instead, I post investment and related notes in brief, cryptic form. The notes are not intended as advice, but are just notes to myself.
About Me
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!
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