Following a hellish, large decline in 2008, the global market -- as
measured by exchange values -- has recovered sharply from the
cycle lows in early 2009, but still remains a little more than 50%
below the 2008 high.
Last year, all the major exchanges achieved positive rates of return,
and 73% of them outperformed the US market as investors bet
heavily on the markets of faster growing, more volatile economies. It
was a banner year for global investing and enticed most US market
sages to recommend strong participation in foreign markets in 2010.
This year has been tougher going. Only 64% of the world's exchanges
are positive so far in 2010 and 48% of them have underperformed the
US. The relative strength of global markets has improved markedly
since late Apr. 2010, as US economic and profits growth prospects
are seen as slowing (For Apr. 2010, only 11% of foreign bourses
were stronger than the US for the first four months of the year).
The US market has fared well in Sept. Short term cycle indicators
have improved some and investors have responded favorably to the
Fed's promise to backstop the economy should it appear to falter.
This has served to re-invigorate interest in foreign markets, with
the global index outperforming the US in Sept.
The Dow Jones Global Exchange Index has failed to get through
strong overhead resistance since the cyclical bottom of the market
in early 2009. The market is presently moving up toward the 600
resistance level on the Index, and is also starting to signal a more
positive trend for relative performance.
Strongest markets are: Jakarta, Colombo, Sensex, Istanbul, KL,
Manila, Santiago, Caracas and Bangkok. The Nordics are doing well,
Dow Global chart.
- Peter Richardson
- Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!