About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Friday, August 27, 2010

US Economy -- Interesting Observation

Weekly data make it clear the economy has started to flatten out
since late July. I think this development was more or less widely
expected, but I am not sure all appreciate what a curious time it is
in that there has been no inventory cycle to speak of during the
recovery over the past year. Available data do not suggest that
flattish demand would trigger substantial involuntary inventory
accumulation relative to sales which would in turn set up a
classic inventory liquidation recession.

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