About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Post Traumatic Stress & Profit Taking

One of my concerns about the stock market over recent months
has been the potential for a collective emotional backslide that
could be triggered by events that remind investors of the original
trauma of the economic / financial crisis of 2007 - early 2009.
I think it is crazy to expect that investors would skate right out of
that nightmare without experiencing subsequent shivers or
without looking back. The problems the EU is encountering and
some mild policy tightening by China have been the catalysts to
have ignited fears.

And, of course, from the 3/09 low into 4/10, the SP 500 advanced
by a staggering 80+%. That advance included the funky, out-of-
place rally of the early spring. What better time for a bunch of
traders to finally take profits?

I do not want to minimize the various problems the EU is facing
now nor do I wish to wave off China's mild tilt toward temperance.
But these are issues that are being encountered in a global economic
recovery with unprecedented monetary and fiscal support. I will
keep an eye on these problems, but as of now, I think the risks
they pose are rather mild.

I am leaning more to the diagnosis of post traumatic stress jitters
coupled with good old fashioned profit taking and portfolio
restructuring to account for the recent flight from risk taking. Yet,
you have to be respectful of these factors as a re-stoking of the old
fears and the profit motive are all too human.

No comments: