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About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Saturday, October 03, 2009

Long Treasury Bond

As readers will recall, I have thought the long Treasury was a
decent countertrend trade on the long side over the past 3-4
months. This was not easy work, but it was an ok call. Now the
bond is trading around the 40 week m/a after posting up 10 points
in recent months. So, it is no longer an oversold entity, and, given
my admittedly indiosyncratic way of trading the bond, is now less
interesting as a trade, even though it is trending positively and has
decent fundamental support, now that industrial commodities
prices have been softening.

I have no quarrel with the bond bulls in the very short run. Trading
on the long side may still be ok, but I am less sure footed now in my
method, so I plan to sideline it for a while. Treasury price chart.

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