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Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Stock Market -- Technical & A Note

The short and intermediate uptrends remain intact, although the
new intermediate uptrend line has not been tested since the SP 500
touched the 879 level on 7/10. (I link to the "500" chart below and
it features an extended MACD you might find interesting.)

The current shorter term upleg started on 7/13. Since then, the
SP 500 has shown hefty price momentum overboughts daily and
is now materially overbought on RSI (% of "up" days) as well. This
kind of strong positive action has trashed the shorts and has forced
many long side traders to chase stocks.

The market is also registering significant overboughts on breadth and
on positive spread over the 13 and 40 wk. moving averages. You have
to go back to the 1995 - 2000 period to recapture the upward drive
we have seen recently.

the SP 500 chart is here.

Note: On the fundamental side, the market has fully discounted the
positive bounce to earnings from sheer cost cutting alone. Extended
strength from here would imply players are moving on to the
assumption of the commencement of rising sales for businesses and
the prospect of improving profit margins.

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