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About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

Stock Market -- Technical

As expected based on my 6/2 post, the market has entered a
corrective phase, with the SP 500 down about 7% from the 6/2
close. The down trend was confirmed by rollovers in the 10 and
25 day m/a 's and a break by the market below both. We have
reached a short term oversold level, and it is the steepest since
just after the market's positive turn in Mar.

The SP500 is at an interesting spot now. It is at the bottom of
my short term oscillator channel and smack on support around
880 based on the close. Since today's late rally up to support may
be but a "head fake", I would not get too excited about jumping
right back in. This cute action was too neat by half. A oversold can
be a bad thing to waste, but I plan to sit back for a few days on this
one.

A rally off 880 would suggest to many the development of a range
bound market. We'll see. After such a powerful bull run from
Mar. through early Jun., it is not unreasonable to suggest that a
10% correction off the 6/2 close of 945 down to 850 could well be
in order. If such were to occur, I would have to say that I would
have mixed feelings from a technical perspective about the
future course of the market. But, I plan to worry more about that if
and when we get there.

SP 500 daily chart is HERE.

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