About Me

Retired chief investment officer and former NYSE firm partner with 50 plus years experience in field as analyst / economist, portfolio manager / trader, and CIO who has superb track record with multi $billion equities and fixed income portfolios. Advanced degrees, CFA. Having done much professional writing as a young guy, I now have a cryptic style. 40 years down on and around The Street confirms: CAVEAT EMPTOR IN SPADES !!!

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Far From The Madding Crowd...

Right after I post this piece, I am heading out to do some blacktop
repair on the driveway to beat the cooler weather and the falling
of the leaves.

Speaking of falling, investor and trader fears are obviously
rampant concerning whether the global financial system is getting
unhinged and is near ready to fall apart. The central banks have
poured liquidity into the system in recent days. The feds have chipped
away heavily at "systemic risk" with the takeovers of Fannie, Freddie
and the doleful AIG. But, really, if folks want to blow up the system
via a panic, massive liquidity infusions will not, in the end, stop the
madness. Moreover, stepping too heavily on the monetary pedal
may only trigger another and damaging round of inflation hedge
speculation. Government authorities around the world may be
forced to do further tinkering if fears do not abate, but at this
point, I intend to let this gael blow over when it will and see if folks
really are as scared as they think they are.

A quick way to track the machinations of a worried financial crowd
is to watch the 3 month US Treasury yield. Chart is here. You can
also track the moment to moment action at $IRX.

No comments: